You know, I was one of those guys who would count cards for a living and believe me when I say I know a little bit about the game. Over the years I tried to memorize a few, but reasonably most of it I just treated it like a numbers game.
It was 1994 and I was working for about 6 months using some compute cards which at the time were pretty impressive for the tools that we could then access. The boss heard about me using them and started to make his life harder for me. Often I was left confused whether I was chasing or needed the card counting.
Yep, the card counting wasn’t working for me and the only way to make money was to cheat. Which I was sure the smart players would do. But the casino wasn’t and I wasn’t. I thought I knew how to count cards in baccarat and I was right but I was wrong.
Amazingly I even had trouble figuring out how to count cards in blackjack. That was the same system I was using in baccarat. Wrong again.
From that day onwards I tried to educate myself on how to count cards in blackjack as there was no way I could beat the 8 deck shoe in blackjack. Despite my efforts there was nothing I could do to accomplish this. I Astro-tipped a flight into Las Vegas that was going to take me by surprise I tracking my practice runs in my mind.
After Las Vegas I decided to concentrate on soccer betting. I was living in London at the time and many Brits were heading there in search of the streak. I made it to the UK in fine form and won my first bet in a casino. It was a large sum of money and really satisfied my ego. I was a little shocked the next day when I walked across the street to the bookies and placed another bet on the same table. I won and double up.
It was around this time that I received an email from a fellow named Ian astronomers saying he was looking for me. I had no idea who he was and wanted to impress the client so I said sure. We met in a bar in downtown London and introduced ourselves. I was working as an accountant at the time for a small charity, while he was a middle-aged man living in affluent Cheltenham.
We sat down and had a drink. I was using my Cheltenham Favourites and he was using his soccer tips. We split the profits and started to argue about the teams. Eventually he rose and saying ‘This has got to be about 11. Not that’. He then placed a large bet on a poor team who had just been beaten on the road. I guess he used the eleven tip.
Not too long after this Ian got in a cab and proposed to me. Then I learned the hard way that the 11 tip was not so fool proof.
But this was all in the past. I still believed in the 11. And, of course, I still believed in my own analysis of the dewabet.
Now, let me tell you that the analysis you present is probably not as developed as mine. You might believe me or not, right here, right now, but the 11 is the favourite of the betting public. Ian Doyle has just proven this for me.
Ian Doyle has just proven that the favourite is not always the best option. He has shown that there is another option. The analysis is not one that can be reached by analysis of the past, but rather one that can be reached using statistics alone.
Statistics alone can be analysis, you have to work with them. You can’t use statistics alone to analyze a game. You have to use history. The methods of analyzing games can be applied to all team performances.